NCAA FOOTBALL 2005

WEEK ELEVEN football games that matter

Alabama vs. LSU – This is the first time this season that I have come into an Alabama game and felt a bit worried.  I truly thought that we had the better team against Florida and Tennessee, but here the teams will be about the same and Alabama will have to want it more.  Don’t think, though, that they didn’t noticed that they were passed in half of the polls by a one loss Miami team and that in the ones that they were ahead they were only so by a hair.  Don’t think that they don’t hear everyone writing off one of only three teams that are still undefeated this season.  Don’t think that they haven’t heard people around them thinking back to an Alabama 13 years ago who nobody thought was for real.  A team with a great defense and an offense that came through when it needed to and didn’t loose games.  Don’t underestimate the Tide.  They have some things to work with here.  They have shown a better defense than Auburn has this year and Auburn should have beaten LSU a few weeks ago.  If it weren’t for about 10 dropped balls and a 1/6 kicking performance they would have.  And that was an uncharacteristically stingy LSU team who did not turn the ball over and scored on a kick return.  Alabama on the other hand is not scoring points on offense since Prothro went down.  Of course what many people are overlooking is the fact that in many of these games, the offense became a running machine and just ran out the game, however, in others they just couldn’t score points.  I think that LSU is a bit overrated and has struggled against good defenses.  They will really struggle here against a great one.  Also, they have a habit of turning the ball over and when the Tide defense tightens the screws, they will get nervous and start coughing it up.  On offense, the Tide won’t got huge points, but they should be able to run the ball and this will lead to some points with Brodie Croyle stepping up in this one.  I think that Alabama will win and win by a few touchdown and make people step back and think a bit.  I am taking Alabama in this one in a statement game 31-13.

Auburn vs. Georgia – This should be a good one.  I think that Auburn has the better team, though with a stronger defense and an offense that is actually working in multiple areas.  Georgia, however, will have DJ Shockley back and if he can pick up his game to higher levels than he has played at this season it could be close, if not this game could get ugly.  Don’t forget that Georgia should have been beaten by South Carolina earlier in the season and Tennessee held with them for the entire game, even though they don’t even line up offensively.  Auburn will run the ball well on Georgia and move the ball.  They will have a bit of trouble in spots but will score plenty to win.   The big think is going to be Georgia’s offense, Shockley will probably be a little worse than when he went out, probably a little hobbled running and the Tigers will eat him up.  They will force multiple turnovers and win this one in a route in the end 38-13.

Boise State vs. Fresno State – This should be a good ole’ fashioned shootout.  Everyone wondered what had happened to Boise State when they got dominated by Georgia early in the season and after dropping another game to Oregon State, they have turned things around and are coming into this one bowl eligible and fighting Fresno State for the lead in their conference.  However, many believe that Fresno State is the best team left for USC to face and their only loss this year was in a shootout with a very good Oregon team.  I think that this one will be high scoring, but Fresno State will hold Boise State on offense enough times to pad their lead and win.  I’m taking the Bulldogs 45-28.

Colorado vs. Iowa State – Colorado comes in to this one as the best team on their side of the Big 12 and probably the third best overall behind Texas and Texas Tech.  They have only struggled twice this season against two top five teams in Texas and Miami.  However, Iowa State is coming off of some big wins the past few weeks and are working themselves back up the ladder.  Colorado will put an end to the cyclones this weekend.  They will score points and hold Iowa State to a modest point total.  Colorado will in this game clench a rematch with Texas in the Big 12 Championship game that they probably really don’t want very much.  I am taking the Buffaloes in this one 42-24.

Florida State vs. Clemson – Could it happen?  Could Florida State get beaten again by an inferior opponent?  Don’t forget that early in the season Clemson brought Miami into overtime before loosing to them.  Florida State doesn’t have too much to play for to end out the regular season, however, they are still hoping to win the ACC and play in the BCS.  They are pretty much out of contention if they don’t and a loss here would probably give them more losses at the end than West Virginia, and we don’t want to go there.  Florida State will wake up and realize that they will probably have the change to play a team that they have already beaten once this season in Miami for the ACC title and then they would be in the BCS.  They will get things in gear against a Clemson team whose hopes have shattered since many early season defeats late in games.  Florida State will not let them hang around that long this week and will pull away early.  Not a huge margin, but they will hang on to defeat Clemson 31-20.

Northwestern vs. Ohio State – This is another battle of top tier teams in the Big 10 this season.  Ohio State is coming in with two losses already this year after being beaten by two of the five best teams in the country.  They are playing pretty good ball these days and should hold Northwestern mostly in check.  Northwestern is coming from a shocking come from behind victory over Iowa last week and may hope to have one more miracle in their pocket this week, however, Ohio State is a much better team than Iowa and Northwestern should have lost to Iowa last week.  This should be a goodie, but I don’t think that it will be.  This will be a repeat of Northwestern vs. Michigan except for even more one sided.  Northwestern hasn’t faced a defense this good since Penn State and they played them before their defense really came together.  Ohio State will shut down Basenez and score some points on them as well.  The game will never really get out of hand, but Ohio State will keep them from trying to weasel their way back into another game.  I’m taking Ohio State in this one 31-17.

Florida vs. South Carolina – This one should be fun.  We have two teams coming in that have played good defense all season, but have struggled on offense.  There is also the Steve Spurrier factor.  Spurrier once led the Gators to SEC championship game after another with many victories and even a National Championship.  He is now the Head Ball Coach for South Carolina after taking the reins from at the struggling program from Lou Holtz.  South Carolina will want this one badly, as will Florida as both teams are still alive for the SEC East Title.  They both need Auburn to defeat Georgia, and if so, whoever wins will still be alive in the race.  This will also be a game that will show how far South Carolina has truly progressed.  I just don’t think that South Carolina has enough to pull this one out.  They are struggling on offense even more than Florida and probably should have lost to Arkansas last week.  Also, Florida has a better defense than South Carolina and this could come into play as well.  As per the norm in SEC play this year I think that this will be a close one, but Florida has too much talent to get beaten by South Carolina.  I think it will be close, but I’m taking Florida in this one 27-17.

Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma – Can Texas A&M become bowl eligible this week?  They better hope so because there is no way that they are beating Texas next week.  These two teams are going in about as opposite of directions as humanly possible.  Oklahoma started the season with two losses in three games and then lost again to Texas a few weeks later, but has righted the ship and is finally starting to get Petersen somewhat healthy again.  A&M on the other hand started off well until they had to play some decent teams.  Baylor even took them into overtime, while Texas beat Baylor in a route.  Texas A&M got blown out by Iowa State two weeks ago and again last week by Texas Tech.  I don’t think that Oklahoma is in a place yet where they can blow out A&M, but they will win.  I think that this one will be a bit more low scoring, but in the end the result will be the same.  Oklahoma should score more points than normal and keep A&M to about their average.  I’m taking Oklahoma in this one 31-17.

USC vs. California – This was supposed to be the first game of the gauntlet that USC had to run before ending the season undefeated.  Now, California has three losses, UCLA got spanked by a 2-6 team and Fresno State lost to their only opponent of the year in Oregon.  If USC were not held up like gods, this would hurt their case for number one and a BSC birth, but as it in they must get beaten to be moved and it won’t happen this week.  USC is probably really one of the top 5 teams in the country and probably one of the top 5 most balanced in all aspects of the game.  They are a good team and it will take allot to beat them.  California is a poser that won against insanely weak teams early in the season and fell over when they had to play their Pac-10 schedule and could have easily lost even more games.  I’m looking for a route here and it will probably happen.  I’m looking USC 42-California 17 and USC pulls the dogs off at halftime.

Iowa vs. Wisconsin –  This game should actually be pretty interesting.  Wisconsin is coming off of a tough loss to Penn State last week and Iowa is coming off of a tough loss to Northwestern.  Wisconsin has won some close games this season when they probably shouldn’t have and this should be another close one.  The key here is whether or not Iowa can slow down Calhoun.  Penn State did last week and Wisconsin fell apart.  I think that Iowa has a good enough defense to slow him down and they have the ability to score themselves.  It should be another close game in the Big 10 and neither team should score a crazy amount of points.  I’m taking Iowa in this one in the upset 31-20.

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